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Rubber Daily: Hujiao rose and fell, and the rebound was weak

by:ORK      2022-10-22
Today's trading strategy [spot market] In terms of spot, the natural rubber in Yunnan market is 13800 yuan/ton, the spot price of Thailand 3# tobacco sheet is about 2050 US dollars/ton; Thailand 20# compound is 1760 yuan/ton, Malay 20# standard rubber is at 1740 US dollars / ton; Indonesia 20 # standard rubber spot price at 1730 US dollars / ton, Thailand raw rubber 61.35 baht / kg. [Spread Analysis] Yesterday's Hujiao main contract-Japanese rubber main contract price difference of 270 US dollars / ton, Hujiao main contract-tobacco January cargo price difference-2248 yuan / ton, Hujiao main contract-compound Thai rubber cargo price difference of 1610 Yuan / ton, Hujiao 09-01 contract price difference -1305 yuan / ton. [Market Analysis] According to the Qinrex report, as of May 15, the total rubber inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased again, with a total inventory of 362,200 tons. Under the condition that the inventory of compound rubber and synthetic rubber decreases at the same time, the storage volume of natural rubber can not only be stored once Smoothing out the gap left by the warehouse can also lead to an increase in the total inventory. This also implies that natural rubber seals is really not easy to sell, but the high price has brought more natural rubber inventory. Recently, there have been serious violent incidents of beating, smashing, looting and burning against foreign investors and enterprises in Vietnam. The price of 3L in Vietnam has remained stable and has not changed significantly. Natural rubber inventories have continuously hit record highs. Hujiao’s trend and fundamentals have become the weakest variety among industrial products, and it is a good short allocation variety. In addition, the macro environment has not yet stabilized, and IPOs have been listed intensively, which has a great impact on the price of Hujiao. Suppression, after the delivery of the 1405 contract yesterday, the pressure of warehouse receipt selling in the 1409 contract increased, and the overall negative factors will be fully reflected in this contract. Therefore, the overall weak shock situation is still difficult to change. The top 20 members of SHFE held a total of 111,753 buy orders, an increase of 2,151 hands over the previous trading day, and the 20 members held a total of 143,541 sell orders in the previous trading day, an increase of 2,815 hands, with a net short position of 31,788 hands. The rubber warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were unchanged at 123,400 tons. Overnight, the European Central Bank lowered its inflation expectations, the market's expectations for further easing policy strengthened, and German bond yields plummeted. Several major economic data in the United States mostly exceeded expectations, and gold fell sharply, and then the decline narrowed due to the influx of funds into safe-haven assets. The base metal fell, affecting the bearish position. [Operation strategy] 1409 contract empty orders can continue to be held, the target position is 13800, and the stop loss is 14500. Company website: https://www.orksealing.com/
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