Since 2006, Focus on rubber seals

The rubber bear market has not changed, it is too early to reverse

by:ORK      2022-11-05
Since the beginning of the year, the center of gravity of the Hujiao Index has continued to move downward, although in 3—In April, there was a rebound of nearly 2,000 yuan / ton, but after reaching the 16,000 yuan / ton mark, it was attacked by the bears. The price of rubber seals fell again, breaking the support of 14,000 yuan / ton, hitting a historical low in the past 5 years. At present, this round of bear market seems to be indefinite, and it is still difficult to say the end. Inventory in the bonded area is at a historical high As of the end of April, the total rubber inventory in the Qingdao bonded area was 361,000 tons, at a historical high. At present, the warehouse capacity of the bonded area is tight, and goods are also being released outdoors, but the space is limited after all, so there is little room for further increase of inventory in the market outlook. However, the overall export of the bonded area is still weak, and it is mainly based on composite rubber. At present, there are not too many warehousing plans, but due to the very limited idle storage capacity, some cargoes have to stay in the port. Tire factory inventory pressure is too large Recently, the operating rate of all-steel tires in Shandong has remained at around 75%, but the operating rate of semi-steel tires has dropped significantly from the end of last month. Most companies are facing the problem of increased inventory pressure, and the overall operating rate has declined. Some brands still implement the policy of price reduction and promotion for best-selling specifications. Due to the lack of market conditions, orders have decreased. The production and sales of the downstream automobile market are growing steadily, and the demand for tires is relatively stable. However, due to the high inventory pressure of tire factories, the wait-and-see mood of downstream dealers and terminals has increased, and the enthusiasm for buying goods has been greatly weakened. The heavy-duty truck market will enter the off-season In April, the heavy-duty truck market sold about 86,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. 1—In April, the heavy truck industry sold a total of 288,900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15%. 1—The net increase in April was more than 38,000 vehicles, a large part of which was the stocking and inventory needs of manufacturers and channels, but the real consumer demand of market terminals was not as optimistic as the apparent data showed. Looking at the monthly sales of the domestic heavy truck market over the years, it often begins to decline gradually after experiencing the sales peak in March. Except for the sales increase due to promotions at the end of the year, the rest of the time can basically be said to be a low season for the heavy truck market. . In the second quarter of this year, there is no longer a favorable stimulus from policy factors, and it is expected that the sales volume of the heavy truck market will further decline in May and June. Overall, in the medium and long term, the rubber seals market is still in a bear market cycle, and it is too early to talk about when it will bottom out and reverse. At this time, each wave of rebounds will bring opportunities for the bears to add shorts. Company website: https://www.orksealing.com/
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